Follow up: Ravens 4th down decision

Interesting follow up. I was watching the Ravens/Steelers game last night and they had an eerily similar 4th down decision to the one I previously described in the Pats/Colts game. The Ravens had the ball, behind 14-17 with ~4 minutes left, 4th down and 5 to go at their own 45. Do you punt and hope for a defensive stop? or go for it? The mixed strategy equilibrium says on average you are better off going for it. Well, they went for it ... and this time ... they made it. They went on to win the game in overtime.

So if we can channel Parzen for a second: "point estimates are for suckers". In similar situations, one can make the same decision and have drastically different results. On average though, if you have a "conveyor belt" of these decisions and are relatively risk neutral, you are better off on average going for it in these scenarios. However, are they really risk neutral? Probably not. Although they will make many of these decisions throughout their careers as a coach, you will only make a handful in each game.

After all the lambasting that Belichek received after going for it in a similar situation, there is not a word in today's press questioning Harbaugh's decision to go for it. As far as the media is concerned, it is the right decision if you make it, but it an utterly unacceptable and ridiculous decision if you miss it.